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Will Newcastle Finally End Their Miserable Record at the Etihad?

Newcastle United have the chance to make a real statement of intent on Saturday evening, as Eddie Howe’s high-flying Magpies travel to the Etihad Stadium to face Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City.

Having thrashed Aston Villa 5-1 on the opening weekend, Newcastle currently sit top of the infant Premier League table on goal difference ahead of Saturday’s opponents, and could extend their lead at the summit with a positive result in Manchester.

However, ending City’s decade-long stranglehold over them will be no easy task; Newcastle have emerged victorious just once in their last 31 league clashes with the Cityzens – a solitary 2-1 win back in January 2019 – and Guardiola’s men have prevailed in each of the last seven meetings at the Etihad.

Magpies Momentum Offsets Ominous Etihad Record

While history is firmly on City’s side, current form favours the visitors. Newcastle are unbeaten in their last five Premier League outings stretching back to last season, winning four of those, while the 5-1 opening day demolition of Villa was their biggest top-flight victory since April 2016.

City also made a winning start against Burnley, but their 3-0 success was a close run thing until the final 15 minutes, when late goals from Rodri and Erling Haaland – his second of the game – put extra gloss on the scoreline. Prior to that, Vincent Kompany’s Clarets had largely frustrated the champions.

Guardiola’s side did follow up with a hard-fought UEFA Super Cup triumph against Europa League winners Sevilla in midweek, prevailing 6-5 on penalties after a 1-1 draw, so will head into this fixture battle-hardened.

But less than 72 hours recovery time for several key players could aid Newcastle’s cause. Where Guardiola may opt to shuffle his pack to keep legs fresh, Howe has no need to rotate after an eight-day break since destroying Villa.

Defensive Vulnerabilities Offer Newcastle Hope

While City ultimately got the job done against Sevilla, some rare defensive cracks were visible.

The Spanish side created numerous openings and scored from one of them through Youssef En-Nesyri, who was afforded the freedom of the six-yard box to head home. It was only the third goal City have conceded in their last 11 games, but concerning nonetheless given Sevilla’s struggles in front of goal over the past year.

John Stones did make his return from injury in that match to shore things up, but has since suffered a setback and will miss this game. Ruben Dias, absent since early July, is rated only a “maybe” by Guardiola as he manages a head problem, so the centre-back pairing could have a makeshift look.

Given Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak put Villa to the sword last week, combining for three goals, any weaknesses in the City backline could prove costly.

Tonali and Botman Settling in Seamlessly

While Erling Haaland inevitably grabbed the headlines on his Premier League debut, scoring twice against Burnley, Newcastle’s own new signings also enjoyed dream starts to life in England.

Sven Botman was an imperious presence at the heart of the Magpies defence, making more clearances than any player on the pitch and helping restrict Villa to just two shots on target.

Further forward, Sandro Tonali capped his first appearance with an early goal, finding space on the edge of the box to rifle Newcastle into a second minute lead. The Italian joined Botman in looking immediately at home.

If the pair can replicate those assured displays at the Etihad, where Newcastle’s defensive resilience will be fully tested, an upset could be on the cards.

Shelvey Absence Hands Joelinton Vital Role

One concerning absence for Newcastle is Joe Willock, who scored in three consecutive games against City in 2021. The midfielder remains sidelined with a hamstring injury.

In his absence, Joelinton’s physicality and work rate in central areas will be integral to disrupting City’s rhythm and slowing their attacks. The Brazilian has previous in this fixture; he netted at the Etihad in 2019’s shock 2-1 win.

Joelinton will need to curb his rash streak though. No player conceded more fouls in the Premier League last season, and City’s array of creative talents will punish free-kicks in dangerous areas. With Jonjo Shelvey also missing through injury, Howe can ill afford an early yellow or red card for his midfield enforcer.

Prediction: Score Draw as Newcastle Earn Hard-Fought Point

Recent meetings between the sides have tended to be high scoring affairs, producing 19 goals across the last four league clashes.

With attacking talents like Haaland, Kevin de Bruyne, Allan Saint-Maximin, Miguel Almiron and others on show, another open, entertaining encounter appears likely.

City’s slight defensive frailties, coupled with heavy legs, can help Newcastle capitalise on any chances that come their way. But with Guardiola sure to have drilled his side in denying space behind the backline, clear openings may be limited.

Prediction: Manchester City 2-2 Newcastle United

A point would represent a creditable result and maintain the feel-good factor around St James’ Park. While Newcastle’s long wait for a league win at the Etihad is unlikely to end, avoiding defeat can sustain early season momentum.

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