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Leganes vs Real Madrid – Prediction and Betting Tips | Nov 24, 2024

A potentially historic evening awaits at the Estadio Municipal de Butarque as Leganes seek their first-ever La Liga victory against Real Madrid. Los Blancos arrive seeking to maintain pressure on leaders Barcelona, while the hosts aim to continue their solid return to top-flight football.

Current Form and Standings

Leganes

  • Position: 14th (14 points)
  • Last 5 matches: W-W-L-W-D
  • Home form: W-D-W-L-D
  • Goals scored: 12
  • Goals conceded: 14

El Lega’s impressive home record, particularly defensively (only 4 goals conceded), offers hope against the giants.

Real Madrid

  • Position: 2nd (27 points, game in hand)
  • Last 5 matches: W-L-L-W-D
  • Away form: W-D-W-W-W
  • Goals scored: 28
  • Goals conceded: 8

Los Blancos arrive after an emphatic 4-0 victory over Osasuna, featuring Vinicius Junior’s hat-trick and Jude Bellingham’s first goal.

Historical Context

Leganes have never beaten Real Madrid in La Liga:

  • Last two home meetings: 2-2 draws
  • Only two victories ever (both in Copa del Rey)
  • Last encounter: July 2020 (2-2)

Team News and Likely Lineups

Leganes

Key absences:

  • Renato Tapia (injured)
  • Enric Franquesa (injured)
  • Dani Raba (doubtful – hamstring)

Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Dmitrovic; Alti, Gonzalez, Nastasic, Hernandez; Chicco, Cisse; Cruz, Brasanac, El Haddadi; De la Fuente

Real Madrid

Multiple absences:

  • Lucas Vazquez (injured)
  • Rodrygo (injured)
  • Eder Militao (injured)
  • Aurelien Tchouameni (injured)
  • Dani Carvajal (injured)
  • David Alaba (injured)

Key return:

  • Thibaut Courtois (recovered)

Predicted XI (4-3-3): Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Mendy; Modric, Camavinga, Bellingham; Diaz, Mbappe, Vinicius

Key Battles and Tactical Analysis

  1. De la Fuente vs Rudiger Leganes’ in-form striker against Madrid’s defensive leader.
  2. Midfield Control Chicco-Cisse partnership faces the challenge of containing Bellingham’s runs.
  3. Wide Areas El Haddadi and Cruz must help defensively against Madrid’s lethal wingers.

Betting Markets Analysis

Match Result Prediction

Goal.mu/Mauri.bet predicts: Leganes 1-3 Real Madrid

Reasoning:

  • Real Madrid’s superior quality
  • Los Blancos’ strong away form
  • Leganes’ historical struggles against Madrid
  • Return of key players for visitors

Additional Betting Markets

  1. Both Teams to Score: YES
  • Leganes scoring in 83% of home games
  • Madrid conceding in recent matches
  • Historical tendency for goals in this fixture
  1. Over 2.5 Goals: YES
  • Madrid averaging 2.3 goals per game
  • Previous meetings typically high-scoring
  • Madrid’s attacking trio in form
  1. Hot Stats:
  • First Half Goals Over 1.5: YES
  • Vinicius Junior to Score: YES
  • Corner Count Over 9.5: YES

Key Factors Influencing Prediction

  1. Historical Context Leganes seeking first-ever La Liga win against Madrid.
  2. Defensive Records Hosts’ strong home defensive record versus Madrid’s attacking prowess.
  3. Key Returns Courtois’ return strengthens Madrid significantly.
  4. Champions League Impact Madrid’s upcoming Liverpool clash could influence selection.

Match Environment

The 5:30 PM kickoff at the compact Estadio Municipal de Butarque promises an electric atmosphere as the hosts chase history. The intimate stadium could pose challenges for the visitors.

Conclusion

While Leganes’ solid home form and defensive record provide hope, Real Madrid’s quality should prove decisive. The hosts’ historic opportunity adds intrigue, but the visitors’ need to maintain pressure on Barcelona, combined with their attacking firepower, makes them strong favorites.

The match could prove more competitive than the table suggests, particularly given Leganes’ defensive solidity at home and Madrid’s upcoming Champions League commitments. The first goal will be crucial – an early Madrid strike could open the floodgates, while Leganes scoring first could set up a memorable evening.

The combination of Madrid’s attacking trio and Leganes’ competitive spirit suggests an entertaining encounter, though the visitors’ superior quality should ultimately tell.

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