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Moreirense vs Porto – Prediction and Betting Tips | Nov 24, 2024

The Taca de Portugal’s fourth round presents an intriguing clash as defending champions Porto travel to face Moreirense at the Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. This encounter marks the second cup meeting between these sides in less than a month, following Porto’s comfortable victory in the Taca da Liga quarter-finals.

Recent Form Analysis

Moreirense

  • Last 5 matches: W-L-L-L-D
  • Home form: W-L-W-D-L
  • Goals scored in last 5: 6
  • Goals conceded in last 5: 8

Moreirense showed remarkable resilience in their last outing, orchestrating a stunning comeback from two goals down to defeat Gil Vicente 3-2. However, their overall form has been inconsistent, with three consecutive defeats preceding that victory.

Porto

  • Last 5 matches: L-L-W-W-D
  • Away form: L-W-D-W-W
  • Goals scored in last 5: 8
  • Goals conceded in last 5: 9

The Dragoes enter this fixture looking to bounce back from consecutive defeats – a 4-1 thrashing by Benfica in O Classico and a last-minute 2-1 loss to Lazio in the Europa League. These setbacks marked their first back-to-back defeats since October 2023.

Head-to-Head Analysis

Recent meetings:

  • Oct 2024: Porto 2-0 Moreirense (Taca da Liga)
  • Sep 2024: Porto 3-1 Moreirense (Primeira Liga)
  • Apr 2024: Moreirense 0-2 Porto (Primeira Liga)

Porto’s dominance in this fixture is evident, with Moreirense winless in their last 15 encounters against the Dragons, their last victory dating back to May 2017.

Cup Journey So Far

Moreirense

  • Third Round: Defeated Uniao Santarem 2-1
  • Notable: Showed character to come from behind
  • Key performer: Guillermo Schettine

Porto

  • Third Round: Defeated Sintrense 3-0
  • Title defense began impressively
  • Scorers: Galeno, Jaime, Djalo

Team News and Likely Lineups

Moreirense

Injuries have hit Cesar Peixoto’s squad, with several key players sidelined:

  • Hernani Infande (ligament)
  • Guilherme Liberato (ACL)
  • Alhassane Sylla (long-term)

Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Kewin; Pinto, Marcelo, Ponck, Frimpong; Ismael, Ofori; Benny, Alanzinho, Madson; Schettine

Porto

Vitor Bruno faces multiple selection challenges:

  • Fran Navarro, Otavio, Jaime (injured)
  • Zaidu Sanusi, Ivan Marcano (ACL)
  • Wendell, Marko Grujic (muscle injuries)

Predicted XI (4-3-3): Costa; Fernandes, Djalo, Perez, Moura; Eustaquio, Varela; Vieira, Gonzalez, Galeno; Omorodion

Tactical Analysis and Key Battles

  1. Schettine vs Porto’s Defense The in-form striker, with four goal contributions in six games, will test Porto’s makeshift defense.
  2. Midfield Control Porto’s experienced midfield against Moreirense’s energetic core could determine the game’s tempo.
  3. Set-Piece Threat With both teams missing key defenders, set-pieces could prove decisive.

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Betting Markets Analysis

Match Result Prediction

Goal.mu/Mauri.bet predicts: Moreirense 1-3 Porto

Reasoning:

  • Porto’s superior quality despite recent setbacks
  • Their strong head-to-head record
  • Moreirense’s defensive vulnerabilities
  • Cup holders’ determination to bounce back

Additional Betting Markets

  1. Both Teams to Score: YES
  • Moreirense scoring in 80% of home games
  • Porto’s recent defensive fragility
  • Both teams’ attacking approach
  1. Over 2.5 Goals: YES
  • Last five meetings averaged 3.2 goals
  • Porto’s last 7 cup games: 71% over 2.5
  • Moreirense’s recent high-scoring matches
  1. Hot Stats:
  • First Half Goals Over 0.5: YES
  • Porto to Score in Both Halves: YES
  • Total Cards Over 4.5: YES

Key Factors Influencing Prediction

  1. Recent Cup Meeting Porto’s comfortable victory in the Taca da Liga provides tactical insights.
  2. Recovery from Defeats Porto’s mentality after consecutive losses could spark a strong response.
  3. Squad Depth Despite injuries, Porto’s superior squad depth could prove decisive over 90 minutes.
  4. Cup Experience Porto’s expertise in knockout competitions versus Moreirense’s underdog spirit.

Match Environment

The 5:00 PM kickoff should provide ideal playing conditions at the Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, though the intimate stadium atmosphere could benefit the hosts.

Conclusion

While Moreirense’s recent comeback victory shows their fighting spirit, Porto’s quality and experience in cup competitions should prove decisive. Expect the defending champions to respond to their recent setbacks with a convincing victory, though not without some resistance from the hosts.

The combination of Porto’s need to bounce back and Moreirense’s attacking intent suggests an entertaining cup tie with goals at both ends. The first goal will be crucial – an early Porto strike could open the floodgates, while Moreirense scoring first could set up a classic cup upset scenario.

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