⚽Germany vs. Italy: Prediction, Team News & Lineups | Mar 23, 2025

⚽ Match Preview

Two of Europe’s heavyweights meet again in a blockbuster second leg of the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals, with Germany holding a 2-1 advantage over Italy following their win at the San Siro on Thursday.

Now back in Dortmund, Julian Nagelsmann’s side aim to book their place in the Nations League semi-finals for the first time, while Luciano Spalletti’s Italy look to produce a comeback to keep their silverware hopes alive.

⚡ Interesting Fact:

Germany have never reached the final four of the Nations League. A win on Sunday would mark their first semi-final appearance in the competition’s history.

🔍 Team Analysis

🇩🇪 Germany

After a clever tactical reshuffle at half-time in Milan, Julian Nagelsmann’s Germany turned the match on its head, with substitute Tim Kleindienst and returning midfielder Leon Goretzka both scoring.

Germany’s home form has been exceptional, winning their last three matches on German soil by an aggregate score of 13-0.

📊 Current Form:

🏆 Last 5 Matches: ✅✅🤝✅✅
⚽ Last Match: 2-1 win vs Italy (A)

⭐ Key Players:

• Tim Kleindienst – 3 goals in 3 internationals; the new aerial threat for Germany.

• Joshua Kimmich – Captain and creative leader; 2 assists in the first leg.

• Leon Goretzka – Scored the winner last time and was awarded Man of the Match.

🚑 Injuries:

❌ Kai Havertz, Benjamin Henrichs, Florian Wirtz, Marc-Andre ter Stegen
❌ Felix Nmecha, Aleksandar Pavlovic
📌 Deniz Undav – option off the bench

🏟 Home Nations League Record:

✅ Wins: 3
⚽ Goals Scored: 13
🧤 Goals Conceded: 0

Germany are unbeaten in 8 straight Nations League matches.

🇮🇹 Italy

The Azzurri struck first through Sandro Tonali in Milan but were undone by poor set-piece defending, a recurring issue. They now face the difficult task of turning around the tie in enemy territory.

Italy’s recent form has been patchy, winning just 2 of their last 5 games, and losing back-to-back games for the first time in over a decade.

📊 Current Form:

🏆 Last 5 Matches: ❌✅🤝❌❌
⚽ Last Match: 1-2 loss vs Germany (H)

⭐ Key Players:

• Sandro Tonali – 2 goals, 2 assists in this Nations League campaign.

• Giacomo Raspadori – Brings energy and movement to the front line.

• Gianluigi Donnarumma – Italy will need a heroic display from their captain.

🚑 Injuries & Suspensions:

❌ Mateo Retegui, Federico Dimarco (injured)
❌ Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (suspended)
❓ Riccardo Calafiori (doubt)
✅ Andrea Cambiaso & Mattia Zaccagni return

🛡 Away Nations League Record:

✅ Wins: 1 | ❌ Losses: 2
⚠ Italy have conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches in all competitions.

🔁 Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings

• 🏆 Mar 2025: 🇮🇹 Italy 1-2 🇩🇪 Germany

• 🤝 Sep 2022: Draw 1-1

• 🏆 Jun 2022: Germany 5-2 Italy

• 🤝 Nov 2016: Draw 0-0

• 🏆 Mar 2016: Germany 4-1 Italy

🔹 Germany unbeaten in the last 7 meetings (W4, D3)
🔹 Italy have not beaten Germany since Euro 2012

🎯 Prediction (Goal.mu / Mauri.bet)

⚽ Prediction: Germany 2-1 Italy (FT 4-2 aggregate)

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Germany’s momentum, home advantage, and recent attacking firepower make them favourites. Italy may score, but defensive issues and set-piece frailty could cost them again.

💰 Betting Tips

📌 Both Teams to Score: Yes
– Italy have scored in 19 of their last 20 UNL games
– Germany have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 4

📌 Anytime Goalscorer: Tim Kleindienst
– 3 goals in 3 international matches
– Scored vs Italy in first leg

📌 Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
– 4 of the last 5 meetings between these sides have seen 3+ goals

📌 Half-Time Result: Draw (1-1)
– Italy have scored before the break in each of their last 10 UNL matches
– Germany tend to grow into the match after the break

🧮 Predicted Lineups

🇩🇪 Germany (4-2-3-1):

🧤 Baumann
🛡 Kimmich – Rudiger – Schlotterbeck – Mittelstadt
⚡ Goretzka – Gross
🔥 Sane – Musiala – Adeyemi
🎯 Kleindienst

🇮🇹 Italy (3-5-2):

🧤 Donnarumma
🛡 Di Lorenzo – Bastoni – Buongiorno
⚡ Bellanova – Barella – Ricci – Tonali – Udogie
🔥 Raspadori – Kean

📅 Match Details

📅 Match Date: March 23, 2025
🏟 Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
⏰ Kickoff Time: 7:45 PM UK Time

🔚 Final Verdict:

Germany are favourites to progress with a second-leg win at home, but Italy will pose a threat with their attack. Expect plenty of action, goals, and drama as these two titans battle for a spot in the semi-finals.

🇩🇪 Advantage Germany – can they finish the job in Dortmund?

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