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Alaves vs. Real Valladolid – Prediction and Betting Tips | Oct 18, 2024

Alaves vs. Real Valladolid – Prediction and Betting Tips | Oct 18, 2024

Alaves will welcome Real Valladolid to the Mendizorrotza Stadium on Friday, October 18, 2024, at 8:00 PM UK time, in a crucial La Liga clash between two teams struggling to find their form. Both sides are coming off the back of three consecutive defeats in the league, with Alaves sitting 13th in the table, having earned 10 points from their opening nine matches. Meanwhile, Real Valladolid, who were promoted from the Segunda Division last season, are 19th in the table with just five points from their first nine games.

This match is significant for both teams as they seek to halt their losing streaks and gain valuable points in their respective battles—Alaves to remain mid-table and Real Valladolid to escape the relegation zone.

Alaves: Recent Form and Analysis

Alaves enjoyed a promising start to the 2024-25 La Liga campaign, collecting 10 points from their opening six matches. However, their form took a downturn just before the October international break. They lost three consecutive matches to La Liga heavyweights Real Madrid, Getafe, and Barcelona, which saw them drop to 13th place in the table.

Despite this, Alaves’ position remains positive considering they are only three points off eighth place, making it a solid start to their second season back in the top flight following their 10th-place finish last term. Much of their success has come at home, where they have earned seven points from four matches this season, making Mendizorrotza Stadium a relative fortress.

Luis Garcia’s team will hope to capitalise on their home advantage and turn their fortunes around against a Valladolid side that has yet to earn a point away from home this season. Alaves also have a favourable recent record against Real Valladolid, winning their last two La Liga meetings, though this will be their first top-flight encounter since February 2021.

In terms of team selection, Alaves have no major injury concerns, and Luis Garcia is likely to stick with a similar lineup despite the heavy defeat to Barcelona. Kike Garcia may come into the starting XI, replacing Toni Martinez up front, while Stoichkov is expected to continue in the number 10 role.

Real Valladolid: Recent Form and Analysis

Real Valladolid, under the management of Paulo Pezzolano, have found life difficult upon their return to La Liga. With only one win, two draws, and six defeats from their opening nine matches, they sit 19th in the table. Their primary concerns lie in both attack and defence, as they have the worst defensive record in the league with 19 goals conceded, and are joint-lowest in attack, scoring only five times.

The White and Violets’ solitary win came against fellow strugglers Almeria, but their most recent form has been concerning, losing three consecutive matches to Sevilla, Mallorca, and Rayo Vallecano. Their defensive issues were particularly evident in the 2-0 defeat to Rayo, where they allowed numerous big chances despite playing on home soil.

On the road, Valladolid have been abysmal, losing all four of their away matches this season, and their poor away form extends beyond this campaign. During their last La Liga stint in 2022-23, they lost 11 of their 17 away fixtures, and this season has shown little sign of improvement.

Injuries will further compound Valladolid’s problems heading into this clash. Defenders Cesar de la Hoz, Javi Sanchez, and Cenk Ozkacar are either out or major doubts, leaving Pezzolano short of options in defence. Raul Moro, the team’s top scorer with two goals, is expected to return to the starting lineup in place of Darwin Machis, while Lucas Rosa will be unavailable due to suspension, necessitating a change at left-back.

Head-to-Head Record

Alaves and Real Valladolid have faced each other several times in the lower leagues, with Alaves holding the upper hand in recent La Liga encounters. The last two meetings between the sides in Spain’s top flight, during the 2020-21 season, were both won by Alaves. The Basque club secured a 1-0 win at home and a 2-0 victory away. While Real Valladolid were not able to score in either fixture, this statistic is reflective of their broader struggles in attack, both now and historically.

In addition to their head-to-head advantage, Alaves will be buoyed by their solid home form this season, while Valladolid’s poor away record only increases the likelihood of another victory for the home side.

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Prediction

Alaves are the favourites heading into this match, thanks to their superior form at home and Real Valladolid’s dreadful away record. While neither side is in great form, Alaves have demonstrated better defensive organisation and more attacking intent, particularly in their home fixtures.

Goal.mu/Mauri.bet predicts: Alaves 2-0 Real Valladolid

Alaves’ ability to control matches at Mendizorrotza Stadium and their greater attacking firepower, particularly with Stoichkov pulling the strings in midfield, should be enough to secure a comfortable win against a struggling Valladolid side.

Betting Markets:

  • Both Teams to Score: No. Real Valladolid have struggled to score on the road, and Alaves have been relatively solid at the back when playing at home.
  • Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Under. Neither team has been prolific in front of goal this season, and a low-scoring match seems likely, with Alaves doing just enough to secure the points.
  • First Half Goals: Alaves to score in the first half. Valladolid have been prone to conceding early goals, particularly away from home, while Alaves tend to start well at Mendizorrotza.
  • Hotstat: Real Valladolid have failed to score in three of their four away matches this season.

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Team News

Alaves: Head coach Luis Garcia has a full squad to choose from, with no reported injuries ahead of Friday’s contest. Kike Garcia is expected to start in attack, supported by Stoichkov in the number 10 role. Carlos Vicente will feature out wide, while Abqar and Mourino are set to partner in defence.

Alaves Possible Lineup: Sivera; Tenaglia, Abqar, Mourino, Sanchez; Guevara, Blanco; Vicente, Stoichkov, Rebbach; Kike Garcia

Real Valladolid: Real Valladolid will be without Cesar de la Hoz, while defenders Javi Sanchez and Cenk Ozkacar are major doubts for the match. Raul Moro, the team’s leading scorer this season, is expected to return to the starting lineup.

Real Valladolid Possible Lineup: Hein; Perez, Bah, Torres, Chasco; Martin, Comert, Amallah; Ndiaye, Latasa, Moro

 

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