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Borussia Dortmund will look to recover from their recent Bundesliga loss as they welcome newly-promoted St Pauli to Signal Iduna Park on Friday, October 18, 2024, at 7:30 pm UK time. This match marks the seventh round of the 2024-25 Bundesliga season, with both teams eager to secure crucial points for different reasons. Dortmund, currently seventh in the table with 10 points, need to regain momentum after a disappointing loss to Union Berlin in their last fixture, while St Pauli, sitting in 15th place with only four points, will be hoping to escape the relegation zone.

This encounter will be vital for both sides as Borussia Dortmund look to reassert themselves as top-four contenders, while St Pauli aim to prove their worth in Germany’s top division. For Dortmund, it’s an opportunity to get back on track in front of their home crowd, whereas St Pauli will be eager to capitalise on any weaknesses exposed in recent matches.

Borussia Dortmund: Recent Form and Analysis

Dortmund, under the guidance of Nuri Sahin, began the season strongly, recording four wins in their first five games. However, their form has dipped lately, with two losses in their last four matches, including a crushing 5-1 defeat to Stuttgart on September 22, 2024. Their recent 2-1 loss to Union Berlin on October 5 was a further setback, as Sahin criticised his players for a lacklustre first-half performance.

Despite these challenges, Borussia Dortmund remain a formidable side at home. They have won eight of their last nine games at Signal Iduna Park, scoring an impressive 32 goals while conceding only nine. Their attacking power, highlighted by a 7-1 demolition of Celtic in the Champions League earlier this month, should not be underestimated. However, Sahin will be concerned about his team’s defensive frailties, having conceded 11 goals in their last five Bundesliga matches.

With key injuries to players like Giovanni Reyna, Karim Adeyemi, and Niklas Sule, Dortmund may be forced to rely on their depth. Marcel Sabitzer and Pascal Gross are expected to provide stability in midfield, while Guirassy could lead the line in attack, supported by the creative talents of Julian Brandt and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens.

St Pauli: Recent Form and Analysis

St Pauli, managed by Alexander Blessin, have endured a difficult start to life back in the Bundesliga. With just one win in their opening six matches, the club finds itself languishing near the relegation zone. They suffered a 3-0 defeat to Mainz on October 5, a game where they struggled to create clear chances despite registering 19 shots. This inconsistency has plagued St Pauli, who have the worst attacking record in the league, scoring only four goals in six games.

However, there have been glimpses of hope for the team from Hamburg. A goalless draw against RB Leipzig and a 3-0 victory over Freiburg offered a brief respite from their early-season struggles. Blessin will be aiming for a more cohesive performance against Dortmund, but with several key players sidelined due to injury, including Simon Zoller and Elias Saad, St Pauli may find it difficult to penetrate Dortmund’s defence.

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Defensively, St Pauli have been leaky, conceding nine goals, six of which came in the second half of matches. This vulnerability could prove costly against a Dortmund side capable of scoring in bunches, particularly in front of their home fans.

Head-to-Head Record

The two teams last met in competitive fixtures over a decade ago during the 2010-11 Bundesliga season, where Borussia Dortmund won both encounters. The first meeting ended in a 3-1 victory for Dortmund, while the reverse fixture saw them claim a comfortable 2-0 win. Historically, St Pauli have struggled against Dortmund, and their poor away form this season does little to suggest an upset is on the cards.

In their only other recent meeting, Dortmund triumphed with a commanding 5-0 win in a pre-season friendly match in 2022, further underscoring the gulf in class between the two sides.

Prediction

Given the form and quality of both teams, it’s hard to look past a Dortmund victory. Despite recent setbacks, Dortmund’s home record is exceptional, and they will be eager to put their loss against Union Berlin behind them. St Pauli’s defensive struggles and lack of firepower in attack make it difficult to envision them causing any real problems for their hosts.

Goal.mu/Mauri.bet predicts: Borussia Dortmund 3-0 St Pauli

Dortmund’s attacking prowess, combined with St Pauli’s lack of goals, suggests that this could be a comfortable win for the home side.

Betting Markets:

• Both Teams to Score: No. St Pauli have struggled to find the net this season, and with Dortmund’s strong defensive record at home, a clean sheet for the hosts looks likely.
• Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over. Dortmund have scored 32 goals in their last nine home matches, while St Pauli’s defensive weaknesses could lead to a high-scoring affair.
• First Half Goals: Dortmund to score in the first half. St Pauli have a habit of conceding in the second half, but Dortmund are likely to come out strong from the start.
• Hotstat: Borussia Dortmund have scored in both halves in six of their last eight Bundesliga home matches.

Team News

Borussia Dortmund: Dortmund will be missing key players, with Giovanni Reyna, Karim Adeyemi, and Niklas Sule all ruled out. Defender Waldemar Anton is expected to start alongside Nico Schlotterbeck in defence, while Sabitzer and Gross will likely operate in midfield. Guirassy, who has been in fine form, will lead the line, supported by Brandt, Malen, and Gittens.

St Pauli: St Pauli have their own injury woes, with several key players sidelined, including Simon Zoller and Elias Saad. This could see Blessin field a front three of Afolayan, Eggestein, and Guilavogui. Defensively, Wahl, Smith, and Mets are expected to form a back three, with Irvine and Wagner shielding them in midfield.

Borussia Dortmund Possible Lineup: Kobel; Ryerson, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Sabitzer, Gross; Malen, Brandt, Gittens; Guirassy

St Pauli Possible Lineup: Vasilj; Wahl, Smith, Mets; Saliakas, Irvine, Wagner, Ritzka; Afolayan, Eggestein, Guilavogui

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