The 2024 Champions League kicks off for Atletico Madrid and RB Leipzig on Thursday, September 19, 2024, at 8 pm UK time, with a thrilling encounter at Wanda Metropolitano in Madrid. Diego Simeone begins his 12th Champions League campaign as Atletico’s head coach, while Marco Rose leads an in-form Leipzig side to the Spanish capital. Both clubs have started their domestic seasons strongly, setting the stage for an intense group-stage battle.
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Atletico has been bolstered by summer signings, while Leipzig has maintained consistency after their remarkable performance against Bayer Leverkusen. Both teams will be eager to make a statement as they aim to navigate the group of death.
Team Analysis:
Atletico Madrid:
Atletico Madrid has started the La Liga season impressively, with 11 points from five games, showing their resilience in difficult matches against tough opponents like Athletic Bilbao and Villarreal. Diego Simeone’s side remains defensively solid, continuing their reputation as one of Europe’s toughest teams to break down, while also integrating exciting attacking options. Their unbeaten home record in last season’s Champions League is a major strength as they gear up to face another German side.
Atletico’s ability to remain unbeaten at home against Bundesliga clubs—with eight wins and four draws since the turn of the century—gives them a psychological edge. Simeone will also take confidence from his team’s performance in maintaining a 100% home record in the competition last season.
The addition of Julian Alvarez and Conor Gallagher from the Premier League has injected youthful energy into a squad that was previously aging. Both players scored in Atletico’s recent 2-0 win, and Alvarez’s World Cup-winning experience makes him a vital asset in the Champions League. He is expected to start in this fixture, forming a formidable partnership with Antoine Griezmann.
Despite missing Pablo Barrios and Reinildo due to injuries, Atletico has enough squad depth to compensate. Rodrigo De Paul and Koke will be crucial in midfield, dictating play and ensuring defensive solidity while Marcos Llorente and Samuel Lino provide width.
RB Leipzig:
RB Leipzig has also made a positive start to their Bundesliga campaign, unbeaten in their opening matches. Marco Rose has managed to get the best out of his squad, with Leipzig earning a standout comeback win over Bayer Leverkusen, breaking the reigning champions’ 18-month unbeaten streak. However, Leipzig’s momentum was briefly halted with a goalless draw against Union Berlin after the international break.
Leipzig’s journey to Madrid will be a difficult test, especially considering Atletico’s excellent home record. However, Rose’s side remains dangerous in attack, with Benjamin Sesko, Xavi Simons, and Lois Openda leading the charge. The pace and creativity of Simons have been game-changing for Leipzig, and his link-up play with Openda and Sesko will be critical.
In defense, Leipzig will welcome back Willi Orban after his domestic suspension, and he is expected to partner new signing Lutsharel Geertruida, who recently joined from Feyenoord. While Leipzig has some injury concerns—Xaver Schlager and Assan Ouedraogo remain sidelined—Rose has a strong squad to call upon, with Amadou Haidara and Kevin Kampl anchoring the midfield.
Leipzig’s European experience has grown in recent years, and they will be confident of causing an upset, having previously eliminated Atletico from the competition in 2020. However, their success this time around will depend on how well they can handle Atletico’s defensive resilience.
Head-to-Head:
The most notable meeting between these two sides came in the 2020 Champions League quarter-final, where RB Leipzig triumphed 2-1 in a one-off match played in Lisbon. This result marked Leipzig’s best performance in the competition to date, but Atletico will be out for revenge as they return to face the German side on home soil.
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Prediction and Betting Tips:
Prediction: While both teams have started their domestic campaigns well, Atletico Madrid’s home record and tactical discipline under Diego Simeone give them the advantage. Leipzig’s attacking prowess will make this an exciting contest, but Atletico’s experience and defensive organization should see them secure a narrow victory.
Goal.mu/Mauri.bet predicts: Atletico Madrid 2-1 RB Leipzig.
Justification:
Atletico’s ability to grind out results at home, combined with their impressive form against German teams, should give them the upper hand. Leipzig’s attack will challenge Atletico’s defense, but the experience of players like Griezmann and Oblak is likely to prove decisive.
Betting Markets:
- Both Teams to Score: Yes
- Leipzig’s dynamic front line will test Atletico’s defense, but Atletico’s home advantage and attacking options should also see them find the net.
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5
- With both teams boasting strong attacking players, a high-scoring encounter is likely, making Over 2.5 goals a solid bet.
- Hot Stat:
- Julian Alvarez to score anytime. The Argentine has quickly settled into life at Atletico and his goalscoring instincts could be crucial in this match.
- Corners Total: Over 8.5 corners
- With both teams expected to attack throughout the game, the number of corners could rise as both seek to break each other down.
Team News:
Atletico Madrid:
- Pablo Barrios (muscle) and Reinildo (leg) are the only absentees for Atletico.
- Julian Alvarez is expected to start after scoring from the bench last weekend, likely replacing Alexander Sorloth.
- Conor Gallagher has also made an immediate impact since his arrival and should feature in midfield alongside Koke and De Paul.
RB Leipzig:
- Leipzig will be without Xaver Schlager (ACL injury) and Assan Ouedraogo (knee injury).
- Willi Orban returns from suspension and should partner Lutsharel Geertruida in defense.
- Benjamin Sesko, Xavi Simons, and Lois Openda are expected to lead the attack.
Probable Lineups:
Atletico Madrid Starting XI:
Oblak; Le Normand, Gimenez, Azpilicueta; Marcos Llorente, De Paul, Koke, Gallagher, Lino; Alvarez, Griezmann
RB Leipzig Starting XI:
Gulacsi; Geertruida, Orban, Lukeba; Henrichs, Haidara, Kampl, Raum; Sesko, Simons, Openda
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