Türkiye vs France: Prediction, Team News & Lineups | 25 September 2026

Türkiye make their UEFA Nations League A debut on Friday night with one of the hardest possible opening assignments as France visit Kocaeli for the first competitive match of the Zinédine Zidane era.

The hosts arrive determined to reset after a disappointing World Cup in which they were eliminated at the group stage despite finishing with a dramatic 3-2 victory over the United States. France, meanwhile, reached the semi-finals before losing to eventual champions Spain and then finished fourth after an extraordinary 6-4 defeat by England in the bronze-medal match.

There are major selection storylines on both sides. Türkiye’s official squad does not contain Hakan Çalhanoğlu or Kenan Yıldız, while Orkun Kökçü has been struggling with toe pain. France captain Kylian Mbappé missed training earlier in the week with flu-like symptoms but is now expected to feature, with Zidane’s tactical work pointing towards Mbappé on the left, Ousmane Dembélé through the middle and Michael Olise on the right.

Match Details

Competition: UEFA Nations League 2026/27 – League A, Group A1

Date: Friday, 25 September 2026

Kick-off: 21:45 Türkiye time / 20:45 CEST

Venue: Kocaeli Stadyumu

City: İzmit, Kocaeli

Matchday: 1

Referee: Felix Zwayer

Türkiye, France, Italy and Belgium make up an extremely strong Group A1. UEFA confirms that Türkiye-France and Italy-Belgium are the opening fixtures.

For Türkiye, the occasion also carries historical significance: this is the country’s first campaign in Nations League A.

Match Preview

The two sides approach this competition from very different starting points.

Türkiye’s return to the World Cup after a 24-year absence ended much earlier than Vincenzo Montella would have wanted. They were beaten 2-0 by Australia in their opening match before a 1-0 loss to Paraguay eliminated them with one group fixture remaining.

They did at least respond by defeating hosts United States 3-2 in Los Angeles, with Arda Güler, Barış Alper Yılmaz and Kaan Ayhan scoring. Türkiye nevertheless finished bottom of Group D with three points, three goals scored and five conceded.

Montella has remained in charge and now has the opportunity to rebuild quickly.

France’s summer was considerably more successful.

Les Bleus reached the World Cup semi-finals after beating Sweden 3-0, Paraguay 1-0 and Morocco 2-0 through the knockout phase. Spain then defeated them 2-0 in the semi-final before England won a chaotic third-place match 6-4. France officially finished fourth.

Didier Deschamps subsequently departed after 14 years and Zidane was appointed on 28 July.

Friday therefore represents much more than a Nations League opener for France: it is the first competitive evidence of what the country’s most celebrated modern football figure intends to do with an exceptionally talented generation.

Türkiye Analysis

Türkiye’s squad looks noticeably different from the side that went to the World Cup.

The official 29-man list contains experienced names such as Uğurcan Çakır, Merih Demiral, Zeki Çelik, Ferdi Kadıoğlu, İsmail Yüksek, Salih Özcan, Arda Güler, Kerem Aktürkoğlu and Barış Alper Yılmaz.

But two enormously influential players are missing.

Neither Hakan Çalhanoğlu nor Kenan Yıldız appears in Montella’s Nations League squad.

Their absence changes Türkiye substantially.

Without Çalhanoğlu, Montella loses his most established deep creator and an elite set-piece taker. Without Yıldız, Türkiye lose one of their most gifted carriers and one-versus-one attackers.

That places even greater creative responsibility on Arda Güler.

The Real Madrid midfielder scored against the United States at the World Cup and remains the player most capable of opening France’s defensive structure with a disguised pass, combination around the penalty area or shot from distance.

The Orkun Kökçü problem

Orkun’s condition is another major issue.

The TFF reported that he missed training earlier this week because of continuing pain in his toe. He was again absent from the 23 September session alongside goalkeeper Muhammed Şengezer.

His availability should therefore be treated as uncertain rather than assumed.

If Orkun cannot start, Montella could pair İsmail Yüksek with Salih Özcan, providing greater ball-winning and defensive security but less progressive passing than a midfield containing Kökçü.

Against France, that trade-off could be acceptable.

France’s attacking quality means Türkiye may spend long periods defending without the ball, and having two disciplined midfielders protecting the centre could reduce the space available to Rayan Cherki and Adrien Rabiot.

France Analysis

France begin again under Zidane, but this is not a conventional rebuilding job.

The new coach inherits a team that reached the World Cup’s final four and contains several players approaching their peak.

His first 23-man squad retains Mike Maignan, Jules Koundé, Dayot Upamecano, Ibrahima Konaté, Eduardo Camavinga, Rabiot, Cherki, Mbappé, Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Bradley Barcola and Olise.

Zidane has also introduced five first-time call-ups, including Jérémy Jacquet, Lucas Da Cunha and Esteban Lepaul.

There are important absentees.

Aurélien Tchouaméni was left out as he works back towards full fitness, while Marcus Thuram is also absent for fitness reasons.

Yet France’s depth remains extraordinary.

Zidane’s first tactical clues

The training-ground evidence is particularly interesting.

L’Équipe reports that Zidane has repeatedly worked on a 4-3-3, with:

• Mbappé attacking from the left
• Dembélé operating centrally
• Olise on the right
• Manu Koné deepest in midfield
• Rabiot and Cherki as the two more advanced midfielders.

That would represent an extremely technical and aggressive selection.

Dembélé’s central role is particularly notable.

Rather than using a fixed penalty-box striker, France could have Dembélé dropping, rotating and moving laterally, creating spaces for Mbappé to attack diagonally from the left.

Olise provides the opposite profile on the right: more inclined to receive between the lines, combine and deliver the final pass.

Mbappé fitness update

Mbappé missed Tuesday’s training session because of flu-like symptoms. Reuters reported that he remained at the French base while the rest of the squad trained.

However, subsequent French reporting has him involved in Zidane’s intended starting structure and expected to be available in Kocaeli.

He should therefore be considered likely to start, rather than fully confirmed.

Recent Form

Türkiye

Recent competitive form: W-L-L

• Türkiye 3-2 United States
• Türkiye 0-1 Paraguay
• Australia 2-0 Türkiye

Their World Cup numbers were:

Played: 3

Won: 1

Drawn: 0

Lost: 2

Goals scored: 3

Goals conceded: 5

Points: 3

Türkiye’s biggest problem was chance conversion and attacking consistency. They failed to score against Australia and Paraguay before producing their best attacking display only after elimination had already been confirmed.

France

France’s last five World Cup matches read:

L-L-W-W-W

• France 4-6 England
• France 0-2 Spain
• France 2-0 Morocco
• Paraguay 0-1 France
• France 3-0 Sweden

That sequence requires context.

France lost their final two matches, but those defeats came in a World Cup semi-final and third-place play-off. Before facing Spain, they had won five successive tournament matches and kept three consecutive knockout clean sheets against Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco.

Head-to-Head

There is surprisingly little recent history between these nations.

Their most relevant meetings came during qualification for Euro 2020.

Türkiye produced one of their finest results of that campaign by defeating France 2-0 in Konya in June 2019.

Kaan Ayhan and Cengiz Ünder scored as Türkiye prevented the reigning world champions from scoring.

The reverse fixture in Paris finished 1-1, Olivier Giroud putting France ahead before Kaan Ayhan equalised.

Those results are far too old to drive the prediction, but they do demonstrate that Türkiye have previously caused France serious tactical problems on home soil.

Friday will be their first senior meeting since October 2019.

Tactical Analysis

Türkiye’s defensive block

Without Çalhanoğlu and potentially Orkun, Türkiye may be more pragmatic than usual.

A midfield base of İsmail Yüksek and Salih Özcan would offer physical aggression and the ability to protect the space immediately in front of the centre-backs.

That zone is critical because France could effectively create a box or diamond around it.

Koné can hold deeper while Rabiot and Cherki advance. Dembélé’s movements away from centre-forward may then create another player between Türkiye’s lines.

Montella cannot allow all four to receive facing goal.

Mbappé against Türkiye’s right side

If Zidane uses Mbappé from the left as expected, Zeki Çelik faces one of the night’s defining individual assignments.

Mbappé will not simply remain outside him.

He is likely to start wide before accelerating diagonally towards the space between right-back and right centre-back.

That could force Merih Demiral to repeatedly shift across, potentially opening central areas for Dembélé.

Türkiye may consequently require Arda or the right-sided attacker to work much deeper than they would prefer.

Arda Güler between the lines

Türkiye’s strongest attacking route may involve Arda.

France’s proposed midfield contains considerable technical ability but is not obviously conservative.

If Rabiot and Cherki both advance, space could develop either side of Koné during transitions.

Arda receiving there and immediately finding Kerem Aktürkoğlu or Barış Alper Yılmaz could allow Türkiye to bypass France’s possession pressure.

The hosts should not expect prolonged possession. Their best opportunities may instead come in the five to ten seconds immediately after regaining the ball.

Dembélé’s movement

Dembélé playing centrally would ask difficult questions of Merih Demiral and Ozan Kabak.

Neither defender will want to follow him too far into midfield.

But if they refuse to step out, Dembélé may receive freely and turn.

His movements can also pull one defender away before Mbappé attacks the resulting gap.

Türkiye’s centre-backs therefore need excellent communication with their holding midfielders.

Set pieces

Türkiye may see dead balls as a significant opportunity.

Merih Demiral, Abdülkerim Bardakcı and Barış Alper provide aerial strength, while Arda can deliver dangerous balls into the penalty area.

France remain physically imposing themselves, particularly with Upamecano and Konaté, but set pieces could give Türkiye the type of relatively low-risk attacking opportunity they need.

Key Tactical Battles

Zeki Çelik vs Kylian Mbappé

Potentially the match’s defining duel. Türkiye must prevent Mbappé repeatedly receiving with space to accelerate inside.

İsmail Yüksek vs Rayan Cherki

Cherki’s freedom as an advanced midfielder could become extremely dangerous if Türkiye’s central screen is stretched.

Arda Güler vs Manu Koné

Arda needs to escape Koné’s pressure and receive facing France’s defence rather than with his back to goal.

Merih Demiral vs Ousmane Dembélé

Dembélé’s movement is almost as important as his dribbling. Demiral must decide when to follow and when to hand him over to midfield.

Injuries and Availability

Türkiye

Major absentees from the squad

• Hakan Çalhanoğlu
• Kenan Yıldız

Neither is included in Montella’s official 29-man selection.

Doubtful

• Orkun Kökçü – continuing toe pain; missed multiple training sessions.
• Muhammed Şengezer – minor injury; also missed Wednesday’s training.

Improved/returned to training earlier in camp

Deniz Gül and Yunus Akgün had minor fitness issues early in the camp but returned to team work.

France

Unavailable / not selected because of fitness concerns

• Aurélien Tchouaméni
• Marcus Thuram

Fitness doubt but expected to play

• Kylian Mbappé – flu-like illness earlier in the week; expected to recover sufficiently to start.

Zidane otherwise has enough depth to name an extremely strong attacking XI.

Predicted Line-ups

These are predictions, not confirmed teams.

Türkiye predicted XI – 4-2-3-1

Uğurcan Çakır; Zeki Çelik, Merih Demiral, Ozan Kabak, Ferdi Kadıoğlu; İsmail Yüksek, Salih Özcan; Yunus Akgün, Arda Güler, Kerem Aktürkoğlu; Barış Alper Yılmaz.

The largest uncertainty concerns Orkun. If he recovers sufficiently, he could replace one of the two holding midfielders.

Montella also has attacking alternatives in Can Uzun, Oğuz Aydın and İrfan Can Kahveci. Türkiye’s official squad confirms all of those options.

France predicted XI – 4-3-3

Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Konaté, Truffert; Manu Koné, Rabiot, Cherki; Olise, Dembélé, Mbappé.

That projection follows France’s latest tactical work, which has repeatedly featured Mbappé on the left, Dembélé centrally and Olise on the right.

Eduardo Camavinga remains a major alternative in midfield, while Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola provide elite options from the bench.

Key Players to Watch

Arda Güler – Türkiye

Türkiye’s attacking structure increasingly revolves around Arda.

With Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız absent, his creativity becomes even more important. His ability to receive between France’s midfield and defence could determine whether the hosts generate enough quality possession to threaten Maignan.

Barış Alper Yılmaz – Türkiye

Barış gives Türkiye verticality and physical strength.

He scored against the United States at the World Cup and can operate centrally or from a wide position.

His willingness to run behind France’s defensive line may be particularly useful if Türkiye spend long periods without the ball.

Ferdi Kadıoğlu – Türkiye

Ferdi provides Türkiye with one of their best routes out of pressure.

His ability to carry possession down the left could also force Olise backwards, reducing France’s attacking numbers.

Kylian Mbappé – France

Mbappé remains France’s captain under Zidane and entered this international window with 66 senior international goals.

Starting him from the left gives him opportunities to attack the box rather than playing permanently with his back to central defenders.

Ousmane Dembélé – France

Using Dembélé as a central attacker gives France enormous positional flexibility.

He can drop into midfield, attack either channel and exchange positions with Mbappé or Olise.

Rayan Cherki – France

Cherki could be the most intriguing selection of Zidane’s first XI.

Playing him as an advanced No.8 rather than a conventional winger would provide France with another creative presence between the lines but could also create transitional vulnerabilities if Türkiye bypass the press.

Key Statistics

• Türkiye are competing in Nations League A for the first time.
• Türkiye finished their 2026 World Cup group with three points from three matches.
• They scored three goals and conceded five at the tournament.
• All three Türkiye World Cup goals came in their final match against the United States.
• France finished fourth at the 2026 World Cup.
• France won three consecutive knockout matches without conceding before their semi-final against Spain.
• Mbappé remains France captain and had 66 international goals when Zidane named his first squad.
• Türkiye won the countries’ last meeting on Turkish soil 2-0 in 2019.
• The most recent Türkiye-France meeting finished 1-1 in Paris.
• Türkiye are therefore unbeaten in the countries’ last two meetings, although both were seven years ago.

Schedule and Fatigue

Both countries begin an unusually compressed four-match international sequence.

Türkiye face:

• France – 25 September
• Italy – 28 September
• Belgium – 2 October
• Italy – 5 October.

France face Türkiye before travelling to Belgium on 28 September and then hosting Italy and Belgium on 2 and 5 October respectively.

Zidane has explicitly said that the schedule means every member of his squad must be ready to play because of the short recovery periods.

Nevertheless, this opener should feature close to the strongest available XI on both sides.

Weather and Conditions

Matchday conditions in Kocaeli currently look favourable.

Forecasts point towards a mostly dry, pleasant day with temperatures reaching the low 20s Celsius before becoming cooler by the late-evening kick-off. Significant wind or heavy rainfall is not currently expected.

Weather therefore should not materially alter either team’s tactical plan.

Prediction

Türkiye are dangerous enough to make this uncomfortable.

The home atmosphere should be intense, Arda can create chances against any opponent, and Türkiye have enough pace through Kerem, Yunus and Barış to threaten France when possession changes hands.

The absences are difficult to overlook, however.

Without Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız, and with Orkun uncertain, Türkiye are missing a significant proportion of their technical midfield and attacking quality.

France do not have a completely full-strength squad either, but their replacements are of a much higher level.

The prospective front three of Olise, Dembélé and Mbappé gives Zidane pace, one-versus-one ability and positional variety, while Rabiot, Cherki and Koné should be capable of controlling long phases of possession.

France’s biggest danger may come from committing too many players forward.

A 4-3-3 containing Cherki as an advanced midfielder and Mbappé staying high on the left can leave transition space. Arda should get at least some opportunities to exploit that vulnerability.

The expectation is therefore not necessarily a comfortable France victory.

Türkiye should create chances and the home side have sufficient attacking talent to score, but France’s superior depth and individual quality make the visitors more likely to find the decisive moment.

Main Predictions

Full-Time Prediction: France

Both Teams to Score: Yes

Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5

Safer Goals Angle: Under 3.5

Double Chance: France or Draw (X2)

Half-Time Prediction: Draw

Correct Score Prediction: Türkiye 1-2 France

Prediction Confidence: Moderate

Score Prediction

Türkiye 1-2 France

The Kocaeli atmosphere, Türkiye’s transition threat and France’s first competitive match under a new coach should prevent this from being straightforward.

Montella’s side have the profiles required to punish an aggressive French structure. Arda can find the final pass, Kerem provides direct running and Barış can make life uncomfortable for centre-backs with his movement and physicality.

But France possess more ways to change the match.

Even if Türkiye successfully contain Mbappé for long periods, Dembélé can appear in different zones, Olise can create from the right and Cherki can break pressure through dribbling or combinations. Zidane can then introduce players such as Doué, Barcola or Camavinga if the initial structure fails.

Türkiye’s midfield absences are particularly important against an opponent capable of controlling possession for extended periods.

The hosts can score, especially if they attack quickly after turnovers, but maintaining defensive concentration against France for the entire match looks the greater challenge.

Türkiye 1-2 France is the preferred score.

Hot Stat

Türkiye are unbeaten in their last two senior meetings with France, winning 2-0 at home in June 2019 before drawing 1-1 in Paris four months later.