Italy vs Belgium: Prediction, Team News & Lineups | 25 September 2026

Italy begin Roberto Mancini’s second spell as national-team manager with a demanding UEFA Nations League opener against Belgium at the Stadio Olimpico on Friday night.

Both countries arrive in transition. Italy are rebuilding after the crushing failure to qualify for a third successive World Cup, while Belgium reached the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals before appointing former Netherlands midfielder Mark van Bommel to replace Rudi Garcia. Friday will therefore mark the first match of both new coaching eras.

Mancini has undertaken a substantial overhaul, selecting numerous young players, while Belgium have retained more of their established core but arrive without several major names. Thibaut Courtois is sitting out the Nations League campaign, while Jérémy Doku, Amadou Onana and Leandro Trossard are unavailable.

With France and Türkiye completing an extremely demanding Group A1, an opening defeat would immediately make the qualification equation considerably harder.

Match Details

Competition: UEFA Nations League 2026/27 – League A, Group A1

Date: Friday, 25 September 2026

Kick-off: 20:45 CEST

Venue: Stadio Olimpico

City: Rome, Italy

Matchday: 1

UEFA and the FIGC confirm the fixture, date and venue. France and Türkiye meet in the group’s other opening match.

Match Preview

Italy enter the Nations League carrying considerable pressure.

Their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign ended dramatically in March when Bosnia and Herzegovina held them to a 1-1 draw in Zenica before winning the play-off final 4-1 on penalties. Italy had played much of the match with ten men following Alessandro Bastoni’s first-half dismissal.

That confirmed a third successive failure to reach the World Cup finals.

Italy responded in June with an experimental, youth-heavy squad under interim coach Silvio Baldini. Francesco Pio Esposito scored the winner in consecutive 1-0 victories over Luxembourg and Greece.

Now Mancini is back.

The manager who guided Italy to the European Championship title in 2021 has returned with a clear emphasis on rejuvenation. His original 34-man selection contained nine uncapped players, and he has spoken about rebuilding towards the longer term rather than simply relying on established internationals.

Belgium’s situation is less drastic.

The Red Devils reached the quarter-finals of the summer World Cup, drawing with Egypt and Iran before beating New Zealand 5-1. They then defeated Senegal 3-2 after extra time and the United States 4-1 before eventual champions Spain eliminated them 2-1 in the last eight.

That tournament demonstrated that Belgium’s celebrated previous generation may be fading, but the country remains capable of competing with elite opposition.

Van Bommel’s task is evolution rather than complete reconstruction.

Italy Analysis

Mancini’s first major tactical decision appears to have been made already.

Italian reporting from Thursday’s final training work indicates a return to 4-3-3, moving away from some of the back-three structures used in recent years.

Gianluigi Donnarumma remains the obvious first-choice goalkeeper and captain.

In front of him, Thursday’s work strongly suggested Giovanni Di Lorenzo at right-back, Gianluca Mancini and Diego Coppola centrally and Riccardo Calafiori on the left. Bastoni is unavailable for the opener following the suspension carried from his dismissal against Bosnia.

Federico Dimarco is another important absentee. The Inter wing-back left camp after failing to recover from a club injury and was replaced by Aston Villa’s Matteo Ruggeri. Bryan Cristante had already withdrawn with a physical problem, with Samuele Ricci called in.

The midfield is potentially fascinating.

Nicolò Barella and Sandro Tonali provide proven international quality, but Mancini appears prepared to make a bold choice by placing 20-year-old Alessandro Romano between them.

Thursday’s tactical work again featured Romano as the deepest member of the trio.

That could make him crucial.

Belgium are likely to press aggressively immediately after losing possession, so the youngster’s ability to receive under pressure and move the ball through midfield could have a major influence on Italy’s ability to establish control.

Italy’s attacking experiment

The latest development concerns the front three.

During Thursday’s final work, Mancini spent significant time testing Francesco Pio Esposito as the centre-forward with Moise Kean operating from the left.

The only major unresolved decision is on the right, where Nicolò Zaniolo and Nicolò Cambiaghi remain in competition, with Zaniolo reportedly marginally ahead.

Using Kean wide would give Italy a physically imposing attacking structure.

Rather than having conventional touchline wingers on both sides, Mancini could allow Kean to attack central areas around Pio Esposito while Calafiori provides width from full-back.

Pio’s selection would not merely be developmental.

UEFA notes that the Inter striker already has five goals in nine senior international appearances, while his winning goals against Luxembourg and Greece in June strengthened his claim for a more prominent role.

Belgium Analysis

Belgium’s 2026 World Cup offered more encouragement than Italy’s year.

The Red Devils progressed from their group unbeaten before defeating Senegal and the United States in the knockout stages.

Their World Cup record was:

• Belgium 1-1 Egypt
• Belgium 0-0 Iran
• New Zealand 1-5 Belgium
• Belgium 3-2 Senegal after extra time
• USA 1-4 Belgium
• Spain 2-1 Belgium

They scored 14 goals in six matches and reached the quarter-finals.

Van Bommel nevertheless begins his tenure with several significant absences.

Belgium’s missing players

Thibaut Courtois has agreed with the new coach to sit out the Nations League campaign rather than retiring from international football.

Jérémy Doku and Amadou Onana are injured and were not selected.

Leandro Trossard has also been unable to recover sufficiently from injury to face Italy.

Goalkeeper Mike Penders has subsequently picked up a quadriceps issue and has not travelled with the group.

Axel Witsel has ended his international career, while Thomas Meunier and Alexis Saelemaekers were not included in Van Bommel’s first squad.

Those absences are meaningful.

Doku removes Belgium’s most explosive one-against-one winger, while Onana would normally provide athletic protection around the midfield. Courtois’ absence changes the goalkeeper position substantially.

Senne Lammens is expected to start.

De Bruyne remains central

Kevin De Bruyne remains the most important creative player in the squad.

The 35-year-old has explicitly confirmed that he intends to continue playing internationally while he remains motivated and physically capable. He enters this window with 124 Belgium appearances.

Van Bommel appears likely to make De Bruyne central to his system.

Belgium have experimented primarily with a 4-3-3 during the training camp, despite Van Bommel previously favouring a 4-2-3-1 at Antwerp.

Romeo Lavia, Youri Tielemans and De Bruyne are the expected midfield three, with De Bruyne given freedom to move higher between the lines when Belgium have possession.

That configuration potentially gives Belgium excellent ball progression.

Tielemans can control the first phase, Lavia provides press resistance and defensive coverage, and De Bruyne supplies the penetrating passes Italy must prevent.

The attacking selection is less certain.

Romelu Lukaku has joined the camp but remains short of peak match fitness following his summer move, leaving Van Bommel with the option of using Charles De Ketelaere as a false nine. Diego Moreira and Mika Godts are also competing for positions out wide.

Recent Form

Italy – last five competitive matches

D-W-L-W-W

• Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1 Italy – Italy lost 4-1 on penalties
• Italy 2-0 Northern Ireland
• Italy 1-4 Norway
• Moldova 0-2 Italy
• Italy 3-0 Israel

Italy’s competitive sequence is therefore deceptive.

They have won three of their last five inside 90 minutes, but the defining result remains the shoot-out defeat in Bosnia that kept them out of the World Cup.

Their two subsequent June friendlies produced 1-0 wins over Luxembourg and Greece, although those games featured an unusually young experimental squad.

Belgium – last five competitive matches

L-W-W-W-D

• Spain 2-1 Belgium
• USA 1-4 Belgium
• Belgium 3-2 Senegal
• New Zealand 1-5 Belgium
• Belgium 0-0 Iran

Belgium therefore enter this match having won three of their previous four before the quarter-final defeat by eventual world champions Spain.

Head-to-Head

Italy have historically enjoyed a substantial advantage in this fixture.

UEFA’s records list 17 Italy victories, five draws and four Belgium wins across their meetings.

More importantly, Italy have dominated the recent competitive series.

Their last five competitive meetings include:

• Belgium 0-1 Italy – November 2024
• Italy 2-2 Belgium – October 2024
• Italy 2-1 Belgium – October 2021
• Belgium 1-2 Italy – July 2021
• Belgium 0-2 Italy – June 2016

Belgium therefore have no victory across those five competitive meetings, with Italy winning four.

The previous Rome meeting is particularly relevant.

Italy led Belgium 2-0 at the Olimpico in October 2024 before Maxim De Cuyper and Leandro Trossard completed a 2-2 comeback.

Trossard will not be available this time.

Tactical Analysis

Italy’s 4-3-3 against Belgium’s counter-press

This should be the defining structural battle.

Davide Frattesi has already highlighted Belgium’s ability to aggressively regain possession, describing them as particularly effective in the immediate counter-press.

Italy will therefore need clean first-phase possession.

If Coppola, Mancini and Romano become uncomfortable under pressure, Belgium could force turnovers inside attacking territory.

But there is risk for Belgium too.

An aggressive counter-press inevitably creates spaces when the first wave is bypassed. Barella and Tonali are excellent at exploiting those moments through forward running and progressive passing.

De Bruyne between Italy’s lines

Italy cannot allow De Bruyne freedom between their midfield and defence.

His positioning as the most advanced member of Belgium’s midfield three could force Romano to make difficult decisions.

Follow De Bruyne too aggressively and Italy may open the central passing lane behind their holding midfielder.

Remain too deep and Belgium’s creator will receive facing goal.

Barella and Tonali may consequently need to narrow aggressively without the ball.

Pio Esposito against Belgium’s centre-backs

Pio Esposito gives Italy a genuine penalty-box reference.

At 21, he combines physical presence with improving movement around the six-yard area.

Koni De Winter and Arthur Theate are likely to face the task of preventing Italy from establishing him as a wall player through central combinations.

If Belgium press high, Italy could also use Esposito directly and compete for second balls around him rather than attempting to pass through every phase.

Kean attacking from the left

Using Kean from the left could prove one of Mancini’s more interesting tactical experiments.

He is unlikely to behave as a traditional winger.

Instead, expect Kean to drift inside and attack the space around Belgium’s right-sided centre-back whenever Pio Esposito occupies the other defender.

That could effectively create a two-striker structure when Italy reach the final third.

Belgium’s left side without Doku

Doku’s absence removes a major element of unpredictability.

Moreira or Godts can still threaten one-against-one, but neither currently offers Doku’s established international-level ability to repeatedly carry Belgium through defensive lines.

Italy may therefore be able to defend Belgium slightly narrower than they would with Doku available.

Key Tactical Battles

Alessandro Romano vs Kevin De Bruyne

An extraordinary test if Mancini really starts the 20-year-old. Romano’s positioning could determine whether Belgium’s most creative player receives freely between the lines.

Barella and Tonali vs Tielemans and Lavia

The quality of these midfield combinations means control of second balls and transitions may be more important than raw possession percentages.

Pio Esposito vs Belgium’s central defence

If Italy can regularly find their young centre-forward, they can push Belgium backwards and bring Kean and the right winger closer to goal.

Calafiori vs Belgium’s right flank

Calafiori’s forward movements provide Italy with width but could leave transition space behind him.

Injuries and Suspensions

Italy

Out / unavailable

• Federico Dimarco – physical problem; withdrew from camp.
• Bryan Cristante – physical problem; replaced by Samuele Ricci.
• Alessandro Bastoni – suspended for the opening match following his dismissal against Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Fit again

• Giorgio Scalvini – had a minor ankle concern earlier in the week but returned to full group training and is available.

Belgium

• Jérémy Doku – injured.
• Amadou Onana – injured.
• Leandro Trossard – injured.
• Mike Penders – quadriceps problem.
• Thibaut Courtois – sitting out the Nations League campaign by agreement with Van Bommel.

Retired from international football

• Axel Witsel
• Matz Sels

Not selected

• Thomas Meunier
• Alexis Saelemaekers.

Predicted Line-ups

These remain predicted, not confirmed. Italy’s projection is based heavily on Thursday’s final training work.

Italy predicted XI (4-3-3):

Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Coppola, Calafiori; Barella, Romano, Tonali; Zaniolo, Pio Esposito, Kean.

Cambiaghi remains extremely close to Zaniolo for the right-wing position.

Belgium predicted XI (4-3-3):

Lammens; Castagne, De Winter, Theate, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Lavia, De Bruyne; Lukebakio, Lukaku, Moreira.

Belgium’s biggest selection uncertainty concerns centre-forward. Van Bommel could instead use De Ketelaere as a false nine, while Mika Godts is challenging Moreira for a wide role.

Key Players to Watch

Francesco Pio Esposito – Italy

This could be the match in which Italy formally hand significant attacking responsibility to their young striker.

Five goals from nine senior caps is already an excellent return, and his goals against Luxembourg and Greece mean he comes into the Nations League with considerable international momentum.

Sandro Tonali – Italy

Tonali scored the breakthrough goal against Northern Ireland in March and remains one of Italy’s best players at accelerating attacks from midfield.

His battle against Belgium’s counter-press will be particularly important.

Nicolò Barella – Italy

Barella provides intensity, pressing and forward movement.

With a young holding midfielder potentially starting, his tactical discipline may be almost as important as his attacking contribution.

Kevin De Bruyne – Belgium

Still Belgium’s defining creative footballer.

Even at 35, his final pass, crossing and ability to attack space around the penalty area remain central to the Red Devils’ attacking structure.

Romelu Lukaku – Belgium

His fitness level creates uncertainty, but Lukaku remains Belgium’s all-time leading scorer and offers a completely different physical test to Italy’s relatively inexperienced central defensive pairing.

Youri Tielemans – Belgium

Belgium’s captain gives Van Bommel control and composure in midfield.

His ability to receive behind Italy’s first pressing line could determine how frequently De Bruyne gets possession in advanced areas.

Key Statistics

• Italy and Belgium are meeting in League A Group A1, alongside France and Türkiye.
• Italy have won 17 historical meetings against Belgium, with five draws and only four Belgian victories.
• Belgium have failed to win the countries’ last five competitive meetings.
• The previous meeting in Rome finished 2-2 in October 2024.
• Belgium reached the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals, losing 2-1 to eventual champions Spain.
• Belgium scored 14 goals in six World Cup matches.
• Belgium scored four against the USA and five against New Zealand during the tournament.
• Italy have kept clean sheets in each of their two matches since the World Cup play-off defeat, winning 1-0 against Luxembourg and Greece.
• Pio Esposito has five goals in nine Italy appearances.
• Belgium captain Youri Tielemans leads a squad in which Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku remain the principal senior figures.

Schedule and Fatigue

The new extended international window makes squad depth particularly important.

Italy play four matches in 11 days:

25 September – Belgium

28 September – Türkiye away

2 October – France away

5 October – Türkiye home.

Belgium have an equally demanding sequence, hosting France only three days after the Rome fixture before facing Türkiye and France again.

Rotation is inevitable across the window, but both managers are likely to prioritise their opening match.

An early three points would be particularly valuable in a group containing four nations capable of reaching the quarter-finals.

Weather and Pitch Conditions

Rome should provide relatively warm conditions for a late-September evening.

The latest forecast suggests temperatures around the low 20s Celsius near kick-off, with light winds. Some showers are possible earlier in the day, but current forecasts do not indicate severe weather likely to transform the nature of the match.

Unless conditions change substantially, weather should be a secondary consideration rather than a major tactical factor.

Prediction

This is a difficult match to call because both teams begin under new management.

Belgium arrive with the stronger recent tournament record. Their World Cup run demonstrated attacking quality, and De Bruyne, Tielemans and Lukaku provide enormous international experience.

However, their absences matter.

Without Doku, Trossard and Onana, Belgium lose much of the dynamism surrounding De Bruyne. Courtois’ absence further reduces the experience level at the back.

Italy are also weakened — particularly without Bastoni and Dimarco — but home advantage and their midfield quality make them difficult to oppose outright.

Mancini’s proposed XI is extremely adventurous.

Starting Romano in midfield and pairing the 21-year-old Pio Esposito with Kean represents a clear attempt to regenerate the side rather than retreat into caution.

That could create a fairly open contest.

Belgium should have periods when De Bruyne finds dangerous spaces, while Italy can hurt Van Bommel’s side if Barella and Tonali escape the first pressing line and release their forwards quickly.

The balance between Italy’s historic dominance of this fixture and Belgium’s stronger recent major-tournament performance points towards a close match rather than a comfortable victory for either side.

Main Predictions

Full-Time Prediction: Draw

Both Teams to Score: Yes

Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5

Safer Goals Angle: Under 3.5

Double Chance: Italy or Draw (1X)

Half-Time Prediction: Draw

Correct Score Prediction: Italy 1-1 Belgium

Prediction Confidence: Moderate

Score Prediction

Italy 1-1 Belgium

There are good reasons to expect both sides to score without the contest necessarily becoming high-scoring.

Italy are missing Bastoni and Dimarco, leaving a reconstructed defence that will immediately be tested by De Bruyne’s passing and Lukaku’s movement.

Belgium, meanwhile, are without Courtois, Doku, Onana and Trossard, weakening both their defensive security and their ability to turn transitions into clear chances.

Italy should carry greater attacking ambition than during parts of their previous regime. The probable deployment of Pio Esposito through the centre, Kean attacking inwards from the left and Barella and Tonali progressing from midfield creates several routes to goal.

Belgium possess enough quality to respond, particularly if De Bruyne can operate between Italy’s midfield and defensive lines.

Neither coach has yet had competitive time to fully establish his tactical structure, however, and that uncertainty could produce periods of caution once the initial intensity settles.

Italy 1-1 Belgium is therefore the preferred score.

Hot Stat

Belgium have not beaten Italy in any of their last five competitive meetings; Italy have won four of those matches and drawn one.