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Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad – Prediction and Betting Tips | Nov 24, 2024

The passionate atmosphere of San Mames awaits as Athletic Bilbao host local rivals Real Sociedad in the latest installment of the historic Basque derby. This Sunday night clash promises to be a compelling encounter between two sides separated by just two points in the La Liga table, with European ambitions adding extra spice to an already fierce rivalry.

Current Form and Standings

Athletic Bilbao currently occupy sixth position with 20 points from 13 matches (W5, D5, L3), while Real Sociedad sit eighth with 18 points (W5, D3, L5). The hosts are unbeaten in six matches across all competitions, though their recent league form has been marked by three consecutive draws.

Recent Performance Analysis

Athletic Bilbao

  • Last 5 matches: D-D-D-W-W
  • Home form: D-W-D-W-W
  • Goals scored in last 5: 7
  • Goals conceded in last 5: 4

The Lions haven’t tasted league victory since their triumph over Espanyol on October 19, but their resilient defensive displays have maintained their unbeaten run. Their home form at San Mames has been particularly impressive, having collected 12 points from seven matches.

Real Sociedad

  • Last 5 matches: W-W-L-W-D
  • Away form: W-D-W-L-W
  • Goals scored in last 5: 9
  • Goals conceded in last 5: 3

La Real enter this derby with momentum, having secured a momentous 1-0 victory over league leaders Barcelona before the international break. Their away record ranks fourth-best in La Liga, accumulating 11 points from six matches on the road.

Head-to-Head Analysis

Recent meetings between these Basque rivals:

  • 2023/24: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad
  • 2023/24: Real Sociedad 1-1 Athletic Bilbao
  • 2022/23: Athletic Bilbao 3-2 Real Sociedad
  • 2022/23: Real Sociedad 1-1 Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao have dominated recent home encounters, with Real Sociedad’s last league victory at San Mames dating back to December 2020.

Team News and Likely Lineups

Athletic Bilbao

Ernesto Valverde has received a significant boost with goalkeeper Unai Simon’s return following wrist surgery after Euro 2024. Inaki Williams and Oihan Sancet are also available after missing the pre-international break fixture against Real Valladolid.

Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Simon; De Marcos, Vivian, Paredes, Boiro; Ruiz de Galarreta, Prados; I Williams, Sancet, N Williams; Guruzeta

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Real Sociedad

The visitors face several selection challenges. Martin Zubimendi’s muscular injury sustained on international duty with Spain is a significant blow, while Igor Zubeldia and Orri Oskarsson remain doubtful. Hamari Traore is also ruled out.

Predicted XI (4-3-3): Remiro; Aramburu, Zubeldia, Aguerd, Munoz; Kubo, Mendez, S Gomez; Sucic, Oyarzabal, Becker

Key Battles and Tactical Analysis

  1. Williams Brothers vs La Real’s Full-backs Inaki and Nico Williams’ pace and directness will test Aramburu and Munoz’s defensive capabilities.
  2. Sancet vs Sergio Gomez The creative battle between Athletic’s playmaker and Zubimendi’s replacement could determine the match’s flow.
  3. Unai Simon vs Remiro Both Basque goalkeepers will be crucial in what promises to be an intense derby atmosphere.

Betting Markets Analysis

Match Result Prediction

Goal.mu/Mauri.bet predicts: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad

Reasoning:

  • Athletic’s strong home record against La Real
  • Real Sociedad’s key midfield absence
  • The hosts’ six-game unbeaten run
  • San Mames factor in derby matches

Additional Betting Markets

  1. Both Teams to Score: YES
  • Both teams have scored in 7 of their last 9 meetings
  • Athletic have scored in 85% of home games
  • Real Sociedad’s attacking improvement
  1. Over 2.5 Goals: YES
  • Last three derbies at San Mames averaged 3.33 goals
  • Athletic’s last five home games: 80% over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams in good scoring form
  1. Hot Stats:
  • First Half Goals: Under 1.5
  • Corner Count: Over 9.5
  • Card Count: Over 5.5 (Derby factor)

Key Factors Influencing Prediction

  1. Derby Atmosphere San Mames under the lights for a Basque derby creates an electric atmosphere that typically favors the hosts.
  2. Returning Players Unai Simon’s return strengthens Athletic significantly, while Zubimendi’s absence weakens La Real’s midfield control.
  3. Recent Form Real Sociedad’s confidence after beating Barcelona versus Athletic’s need to convert draws into wins.
  4. Historical Context Athletic’s strong recent record in home derbies suggests they know how to manage these occasions.

Match Environment

The 8:00 PM kickoff at San Mames promises perfect conditions for a derby, with mild temperatures expected. The stadium’s renowned atmosphere should be particularly special for this fixture.

Conclusion

This Basque derby has all the ingredients for a classic encounter. Athletic’s home advantage and stronger squad availability, combined with Real Sociedad’s significant absences, suggest a narrow home victory. However, La Real’s recent giant-killing of Barcelona demonstrates their ability to rise to big occasions.

The combination of derby intensity and both teams’ attacking capabilities points toward goals, making both teams to score a strong betting proposition. The first goal will be crucial in what promises to be an emotionally charged and technically high-quality encounter between these historic rivals.

 

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